Silver and gold have ripped to record highs on a historic short squeeze, weak dollar, and Fed‑cut hopes, while Bitcoin and Ethereum lag as higher‑beta, liquidity‑sensitive hedges that could catch up if macro stress and easing continue.
Summary
- Silver trades near $99 per ounce, up over 30% in four weeks and more than 200% year‑on‑year, with TradingEconomics citing a short squeeze, retail FOMO, and China export controls.
- Gold hovers around $4,938 per ounce and could grind toward or through $5,000 if Trump’s Fed pick leans dovish and rate cuts materialize while the dollar stays soft.
- BTC and ETH sit near $89,000 and $3,000 as “high‑beta cousins” to metals, with one BTC/gold “power law” model implying a possible $170k–$220k BTC snapback if the ratio mean‑reverts while gold holds or climbs.
Silver and gold break out
Silver futures have surged to about 99.3 dollars per troy ounce, up 3.3% on the day, nearly 38% over the past month and more than 220% year‑on‑year, pushing to fresh all‑time highs. Gold is riding the same wave, trading near 4,938 dollars per ounce, up around 10% year‑to‑date and almost 80% over the past year, as capital crowds into classic safe‑haven assets.
TradingEconomics notes that “silver jumped nearly 3% toward 99 dollars per ounce on Friday, reaching new record highs as a weakening dollar provided additional support to the rally in precious metals.” The platform adds that the move has been “fueled by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying, as well as China’s tightening export controls.”
Macro headwinds: dollar, geopolitics, Fed
Behind the chart, the macro story is blunt. Investors are rotating into real assets as the dollar comes under pressure from “shifting US‑Europe geopolitical dynamics over Greenland” and rising fears that Europe could weaponize its sizeable US‑asset holdings, according to TradingEconomics’ silver commentary.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady next week, with markets still pricing in two rate cuts later this year, a setup that historically compresses real yields and flatters hard assets. President Donald Trump is due to name the next Fed chair after interviewing candidates, and a more dovish pick “would likely strengthen expectations for further easing,” adding another tailwind for bullion and industrial metals.
Crypto: parallel refuge, different risk
Crypto is trading like a high‑beta cousin of the metals bid. Bitcoin is hovering around 89,000–90,000 dollars, with recent closes near 89,450 dollars and a roughly flat to slightly negative move over the last 24 hours, after notching new cycle highs earlier in January. Ethereum is changing hands around 2,920–2,950 dollars, with a small daily decline of around 1% on heavier volumes.
On the euro side, BTC trades near 77,000 euros, up just under 1% over 24 hours, while ETH sits around 2,500 euros, eking out roughly 0.1% daily gains, according to Bit2Me and CoinMarketCap data. That leaves crypto still behaving as a risk‑on, liquidity‑sensitive hedge, while gold and silver increasingly trade as consensus macro insurance.
Price outlook: melt‑up or blow‑off?
The current setup looks like the late phase of a positioning squeeze layered on top of genuine macro stress. Silver has already risen more than 34% in four weeks and over 214% in 12 months, an unsustainably steep angle in any commodity. In that context, the base case for the next 6–12 months is:
- Silver: stays structurally higher, with a wide 70–110 dollar range plausible if the short squeeze bleeds out but Trump’s Fed and ongoing geopolitical tension keep real yields capped.
- Gold: a grind toward and potentially through 5,000 dollars, provided rate cuts materialize and no sharp dollar rebound materializes.
- Crypto majors: volatile upside skew for BTC and ETH as long as liquidity expectations remain dovish, but with sharper drawdown risk than metals if growth shocks or regulatory hits arrive.
