Bitcoin price could yet extend its losses after falling below $110,000, but according to analysts at Bitfinex, the benchmark digital asset’s cyclical floor could be in the $93,000–$95,000 region.
Summary
- Bitcoin price has dipped more than 13% from its all-time high above $124k in August.
- Analysts at Bitfinex say BTC could yet dump to $93k-$95k area – a likely cyclical floor.
- Bullish catalysts, including macroeconomic shifts, institutional demand and regulatory developments will help bulls in the fourth quarter
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen sharply since it hit its all-time high, and while the overall sentiment remains positive, analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex say more pain is likely. The area below $100k likely to offer strongest support could be $93k–$95k, the analysts noted. However, this cyclical floor in September will allow for a major bounce in the fourth quarter.
The exchange shared the forecast in its latest Bitfinex Alpha report.
Could Bitcoin slip to $93k?
Last week, Bitcoin slipped below the psychological threshold of $110k, plummeting as low as $107,480 on Aug. 30. Bears retested this level again on Sept. 1, with BTC price hovering around $109k at the time of writing.
BTC has fallen sharply since the brief bounce following the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole event.
Writing in the Bitfinex Alpha report, analysts say the 13% dip from the all-time peak in August may yet accelerate amid current market conditions. In this case, BTC may plunge to the critical $100k zone, and beyond that, a cyclical floor around $93k–$95k.
On-chain data suggests that buyers are taking a breather as the market awaits fresh catalysts, a confluence of which points to a recovery in Q4.
“While this breakdown carries technical weight, historical drawdown patterns and seasonality suggest the market is actually in the later stages of its corrective phase, with $93–$95,000 emerging as the most probable zone for a cyclical floor,” they wrote in the report.
BTC at key price level
Currently, a key metric like the current short-term holder realised price, the average price of BTC held by short-term investors, is at $108,900. The price level marks a key pivot, and extended bearish pressure below this will embolden sellers. Cumulative volume delta, a key exchange order flow metric, also signals a dive in spot sentiment.
The altcoin outlook broadly mirrors this, with a pullback for top alts like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP (XRP).
However, analysts are bullish on factors such as strong institutional demand amid narratives like corporate treasury strategies and exchange-traded fund anticipation. As such, current declines and a cycle low in September portend a new leg up in the next quarter.
The macro picture also suggests a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, a move that will spark upside movement for risk assets. As well as macroeconomic shifts, the crypto market continues to benefit from regulatory developments, with broader support buoying bulls and allowing for aggressive dip buying activity.
