\n
![](\"https:\/\/media.crypto.news\/2025\/11\/crypto-news-Bitcoin-tresuary-option04.webp\")
<\/p>\n
\n<\/p>\n
Bernstein says recent Bitcoin volatility already reflects \u201creal but manageable\u201d quantum\u2011attack risk, giving developers roughly 3\u20135 years to roll out a post\u2011quantum migration path anchored around BIP\u2011360.<\/p>\n \n Summary<\/span>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Wall Street broker Bernstein argues that the latest pullback in Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) has, to a degree, priced in rising anxiety about quantum computing, but that the technology does not yet pose a short\u2011term survival threat to the network. In a research note cited by Cointelegraph, the firm characterises quantum risk as \u201cneither existential nor novel,\u201d describing it as a \u201cmanageable upgrade cycle\u201d that the ecosystem has several years to navigate rather than an immediate catalyst for collapse.<\/p>\n Bernstein\u2019s analysts say recent breakthroughs, including a Google Quantum AI paper showing that the qubit and gate requirements to break 256\u2011bit elliptic curve cryptography are roughly an order of magnitude lower than previously thought, have brought forward timelines but not to the point of imminent catastrophe. Google\u2019s team outlined a tailored version of Shor\u2019s algorithm that could extract a private key protecting cryptocurrencies in \u201cabout 9 minutes\u201d once a large enough quantum computer exists, prompting fears over what would happen to roughly $600 billion worth of Bitcoin secured by today\u2019s signatures.<\/p>\n Even with those advances, Bernstein estimates that Bitcoin\u2019s core developers still have approximately 3\u20135 years to advance and implement a post\u2011quantum upgrade path before quantum machines capable of mounting real\u2011world attacks are available. The biggest near\u2011term risk lies in older address types and legacy wallets that have already exposed public keys, particularly early pay\u2011to\u2011public\u2011key (P2PK), pay\u2011to\u2011multisig (P2MS) and some Taproot outputs, which together hold an estimated 1.7 million BTC.investing+3<\/p>\n One proposed mitigation is BIP\u2011360, a soft\u2011fork change that would introduce a new \u201cPay to Merkle Root\u201d (P2MR) output type designed to reduce quantum exposure by keeping public keys hidden until spend time and by restructuring how Taproot\u2011style outputs are encoded. A Binance Research summary notes that BIP\u2011360 \u201cdoes not fully address short\u2011term exposure attacks\u201d but \u201celiminates a massive existential threat\u201d by closing off some of the easiest avenues for quantum<\/a> adversaries, while a Phemex<\/a> explainer says it is \u201cBitcoin\u2019s first concrete step toward a quantum\u2011resistant infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bernstein stresses that the harder problem is not writing quantum\u2011safe code but coordinating user migration and social consensus. Post\u2011quantum signature schemes are already well\u2011developed in academia and in zero\u2011knowledge systems<\/a> underpinning newer blockchains, and post\u2011quantum<\/a> cryptography standards are being rolled out by bodies like NIST, but moving hundreds of millions of Bitcoin addresses and convincing holders of dormant Satoshi\u2011era coins to rotate keys will be a multi\u2011year process.<\/p>\n In that process, Bernstein<\/a> expects large institutional holders \u2014 from spot Bitcoin ETF issuers to corporate treasuries \u2014 to become powerful voices in favour of a coordinated upgrade once the engineering path is clear. As the broker puts it, quantum computing is \u201ca real but manageable threat\u201d that turns Bitcoin\u2019s security roadmap into a race between hardware labs and open\u2011source<\/a> governance, not an overnight binary event \u2014 and recent price swings reflect that shift from distant thought experiment to live, but still long\u2011fuse, risk.<\/p>\n <\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n