{"id":19782,"date":"2026-05-07T22:51:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T22:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/2026\/05\/07\/prediction-markets-debate-closes-consensus-miami\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T22:51:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T22:51:17","slug":"prediction-markets-debate-closes-consensus-miami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/2026\/05\/07\/prediction-markets-debate-closes-consensus-miami\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets debate closes Consensus Miami"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/How-the-Cryptocurrencies-Change-the-Gambling2.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Prediction markets closed out Consensus Miami 2026 as the subject of a live debate on whether they are regulated financial derivatives or gambling products operating outside state law.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_f3b2ebd4d154304d16436d6fd2342edb\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<p>\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/p>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The closing Consensus Miami 2026 session debated whether prediction markets are CFTC-regulated financial instruments or unlicensed gambling under state gaming laws.<\/li>\n<li>CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the fight could reach the Supreme Court, as the agency has already sued five states for treating its registered exchanges as gambling platforms.<\/li>\n<li>Kalshi\u2019s valuation surged from $22 million in 2024 to $22 billion by March 2026, with sports contracts now accounting for 85% to 90% of its trading volume.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets closed out Consensus Miami 2026 on Thursday as the subject of the conference\u2019s final debate, pitting the CFTC\u2019s position that event contracts are swaps against a growing coalition of state attorneys general who argue the platforms are unlicensed gambling businesses. <\/p>\n<p>The session brought the conference\u2019s policy agenda to a head after three days of regulatory and legislative sessions.<\/p>\n<p>CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/garlinghouse-defends-clarity-act-shift\/\">attended<\/a> Consensus for the first time this year, has made the prediction markets jurisdictional fight a defining feature of his tenure. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe expect these matters to go up to the Supreme Court,\u201d Selig said, as the agency has already <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/a16z-enters-cftc-battle-over-state-prediction-market-bans\/\">sued<\/a> Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin for attempting to regulate CFTC-registered exchanges under state gambling law.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why states are pushing back<\/h2>\n<p>The core disagreement is structural. Kalshi and Polymarket argue their platforms operate like futures markets, with no house setting odds and no counterparty absorbing all risk. <\/p>\n<p>DraftKings president Paul Liberman acknowledged the consumer experience is identical to sports betting. \u201cFor the end user, yes,\u201d he said, \u201cwhether they\u2019re putting a bet on the sportsbook or whether they\u2019re doing a trade on the Celtics here, they definitely feel as though it\u2019s the same.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Wisconsin <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/wisconsin-sues-kalshi-coinbase-polymarket-calls-prediction-markets-illegal-bets\/\">filed<\/a> complaints against Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Robinhood in April, arguing their contracts meet the state\u2019s legal definition of a bet.<\/p>\n<p>A bipartisan coalition of 41 state attorneys general has separately called for federal clarity on jurisdiction. Senator Marsha Blackburn\u2019s subcommittee has scheduled a hearing for May 20, sitting directly between the Consensus debate and the Senate\u2019s CLARITY Act markup window. <\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/cftcs-selig-offers-prediction-markets-a-deal-they-might-hate-to-accept\/\">crypto.news reported<\/a>, Selig has offered platforms a framework: the CFTC will fight state interference, but exchanges must accept surveillance, insider trading enforcement, and a derivatives-style rulebook in return.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/prediction-markets-debate-closes-consensus-miami\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction markets closed out Consensus Miami 2026 as the subject of a live debate on whether they are regulated financial derivatives or gambling products operating outside state law. Summary The closing Consensus Miami 2026 session debated whether prediction markets are CFTC-regulated financial instruments or unlicensed gambling under state gaming laws. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":19783,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"kronos_expire_date":[],"class_list":["post-19782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19782\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19782"},{"taxonomy":"kronos_expire_date","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kronos_expire_date?post=19782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}