{"id":22022,"date":"2026-07-26T17:07:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T17:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/26\/strategy-says-bitcoin-can-fall-11-4-yearly-for-nearly-six-years\/"},"modified":"2026-07-26T17:07:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T17:07:09","slug":"strategy-says-bitcoin-can-fall-11-4-yearly-for-nearly-six-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/26\/strategy-says-bitcoin-can-fall-11-4-yearly-for-nearly-six-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategy says Bitcoin can fall 11.4% yearly for nearly six years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.crypto.news\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-1-2026-10_25_31-PM.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Strategy says its current capital structure could withstand a prolonged Bitcoin decline while continuing to fund interest payments and preferred stock dividends.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_8130f4801fc48f0726d4e71242e6a6be\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<p>\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/p>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Strategy says its current structure can fund obligations through 5.8 years of steady Bitcoin declines.<\/li>\n<li>Company data shows a $3.225 billion cash reserve supporting preferred dividends and debt interest payments.<\/li>\n<li>The stress test uses Strategy\u2019s internal BTC Rating rather than an independent credit agency assessment.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>In a July 24 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Strategy\/status\/2081071018592911648?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">post<\/a> on X, the company said Bitcoin could fall 11.4% each year for 5.8 consecutive years without pushing its company-defined BTC Rating below 1.0x.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At today\u2019s capital structure, <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> could fall 11.4% annually for 5.8 years, and Strategy could still fully fund interest and preferred dividends while maintaining a 1.0x BTC Rating. <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24MSTR&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$MSTR<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NqL5ZTV9Gg\">pic.twitter.com\/NqL5ZTV9Gg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Strategy (@Strategy) <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Strategy\/status\/2081071018592911648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 25, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The claim arrived as Bitcoin traded near $64,463 and Strategy shares closed at $91.67 on July 24. Bitcoin remained below Strategy\u2019s average purchase price, while MSTR had fallen sharply from its previous peak. The exercise describes a steady multi-year decline, not a sudden crash or a guarantee that Strategy could meet every obligation under all market conditions.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Strategy\u2019s Bitcoin stress test measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Strategy\u2019s model uses a measure called BTC Floor ARR. The company defines it as the lowest constant annual Bitcoin return that would preserve 1.0x coverage of net debt and preferred stock over the weighted duration of its credit structure. The calculation includes interest and preferred dividend payments. Its current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strategy.com\/credit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">credit metrics dashboard<\/a> places that floor at negative 11.4% over 5.8 years.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy wrote: \u201cAt today\u2019s capital structure, BTC could fall 11.4% annually for 5.8 years\u201d while the company continued funding interest and preferred dividends. A 1.0x BTC Rating means the measured Bitcoin reserve still matches the claims included in Strategy\u2019s formula. The company uses the calculation to describe balance-sheet coverage, not Bitcoin\u2019s likely future price.<\/p>\n<p>The calculation also differs from a traditional credit rating. Strategy developed the metric itself and publishes it for illustrative purposes. The company does not present it as proof that Bitcoin will decline at a steady rate or that its financing structure can withstand every type of market disruption.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Cash reserve and Bitcoin sales support the model<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Strategy held 843,775 BTC as of July 19. It acquired the coins for about $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476. The company also reported a $3.225 billion U.S. dollar reserve after raising $263.5 million through common-stock sales. As crypto.news <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/strategy-bitcoin-holdings-stay-at-843775-btc-after-263-5m-raise\/\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a>, Strategy did not buy or sell Bitcoin during that week.<\/p>\n<p>The reserve supports preferred dividends and interest on outstanding debt. Strategy\u2019s current figures place annual interest and dividend obligations near $1.7 billion. The cash balance therefore provides less than two years of direct coverage before the company needs new financing, Bitcoin sales or other capital actions.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy created a broader <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strategy.com\/press\/strategy-announces-digital-credit-capital-framework_06-29-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Digital Credit Capital Framework<\/a> in June. The plan authorises up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to build or refill the cash reserve. It also permits selected Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, interest and approved security repurchases. Strategy raised the STRC preferred dividend rate to 12% and approved separate $1 billion buyback programmes for common and preferred securities.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/vaneck-says-strategys-135m-btc-sale-left-1-25b-plan-intact\/\" target=\"_blank\">Strategy<\/a> sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million between June 29 and July 5. It used the proceeds for preferred distributions and reserve replenishment. The sales reduced its holdings from 847,363 BTC to 843,775 BTC.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Strategy warns its BTC Rating is not a credit rating<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Strategy\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strategy.com\/notes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">metric definitions<\/a> state that BTC Rating is an internal, illustrative measure. No independent credit rating agency issues it. It does not measure liquidity, solvency or reported financial performance. The company also says the calculation does not account for possible cross-defaults under its debt agreements.<\/p>\n<p>The model uses the notional value of preferred stock, although some securities may carry liquidation preferences above that amount. Its dividend coverage measure also assumes Strategy can refinance existing debt on broadly similar terms without repaying principal. Those assumptions may not hold during a severe funding or market shock.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy\u2019s board must also approve preferred dividends. The company can adjust STRC\u2019s variable rate each month, and it does not guarantee cash payments. Strategy may issue shares, sell Bitcoin, lower distributions where permitted or restructure obligations if its funding position weakens. A 1.0x result therefore does not remove refinancing, dilution, execution or market risks.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bitcoin and MSTR remain under market pressure<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin traded around $64,463 on July 26, roughly 49% below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. MSTR closed at $91.67 on July 24. Investors continued to track Bitcoin\u2019s price alongside Strategy\u2019s cash requirements, preferred dividend costs and market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s financing model worked best when MSTR traded above the value of its Bitcoin reserve. That premium allowed Strategy to sell shares and increase Bitcoin per share.<a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/strategy-stopped-buying-bitcoin-flywheel\/\"> <\/a>A lower market premium made new issuance less attractive and pushed the company to build cash rather than buy more Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>The company has also shifted from a mainly accumulation-focused model towards active capital management. Its current framework includes share sales, cash reserves, possible Bitcoin sales and repurchase programmes. Crypto.news analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/strategy-mstr-stock-price-prediction-btc-monetization\/\" target=\"_blank\">noted<\/a> that Strategy\u2019s market premium, or mNAV, remains central because it determines whether common-stock issuance can increase Bitcoin per share.<\/p>\n<p>The stress test presents Strategy\u2019s view of how long its current assets could support its financing structure under a steady decline. It does not predict Bitcoin\u2019s direction or cover every form of market stress. Future results will depend on Bitcoin prices, access to capital, dividend decisions, debt terms and the company\u2019s use of authorised Bitcoin sales.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/crypto.news\/strategy-says-bitcoin-can-fall-11-4-yearly-for-nearly-six-years\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strategy says its current capital structure could withstand a prolonged Bitcoin decline while continuing to fund interest payments and preferred stock dividends.\u00a0 Summary Strategy says its current structure can fund obligations through 5.8 years of steady Bitcoin declines. Company data shows a $3.225 billion cash reserve supporting preferred dividends and debt interest payments. The stress [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":20310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"kronos_expire_date":[],"class_list":["post-22022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22022\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22022"},{"taxonomy":"kronos_expire_date","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoted.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kronos_expire_date?post=22022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}