Can Bitcoin price break $65K after the Fed decision?

Bitcoin price recovered 2.8% from an intraday low of $62,850 to around $64,650 on July 29 as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Bitcoin price recovers before the Fed decision

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price rose from $62,850 to an intraday high near $64,775 before settling around $64,650. The recovery followed several sessions of selling across cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.

The $62,850 low aligned with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA, making the level an important test of its broader market structure. Short-term momentum indicators had also entered oversold territory following BTC’s decline from last week’s high near $66,700.

Buyers entering around the long-term average helped trigger a rapid return toward $64,500. Short sellers who opened positions during the decline may also have contributed to the rebound by closing trades as Bitcoin moved higher.

Bitcoin’s relative strength was notable because Asian technology shares remained under pressure. SK Hynix fell sharply after its earnings missed elevated market expectations, contributing to a wider sell-off in chip and AI-linked stocks. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 6%, while pressure also spread to several US semiconductor names.

BTC had traded closely with AI-related equities during much of July. Its recovery during the latest technology rout suggests that short-term crypto selling pressure may be easing, although one session is not enough to establish a lasting decoupling.

FOMC positioning could decide the $65K breakout

The Federal Reserve’s decision is the main catalyst facing Bitcoin. Markets have mostly priced in an unchanged federal funds rate, but swap pricing indicated roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point increase before the announcement.

Citadel Securities has argued that the Fed could raise rates to respond to persistent inflation. Such an outcome would likely strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields, creating another obstacle for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

A rate hold could reduce immediate pressure, but the market will also track the Fed’s statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments. A hold accompanied by warnings about inflation could limit Bitcoin’s upside, while a softer policy outlook may help BTC clear $65,000.

Bitcoin’s July 31 options expiry carries approximately $9.61 billion in notional open interest, with calls accounting for 116,260 BTC and max pain at $64,000.

The call-heavy positioning does not guarantee a rally. However, a break above nearby resistance could prompt dealers to rebalance their hedges and force short sellers to cover, potentially strengthening a post-FOMC move.

Bitcoin must close above $65,200

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows that the recovery has not yet reversed the short-term bearish setup. BTC remains below the Supertrend resistance at approximately $65,198, making the $65,000–$65,200 range the first confirmation level for buyers.

The average directional index stands at 25.13. A reading above 25 indicates that the next directional move could develop enough strength to extend, but the indicator does not determine whether that move will be bullish or bearish.

A 4-hour close above $65,200 would weaken the current sell signal and expose $65,800–$66,200. Bitcoin would then need to clear $66,700, the previous weekly high, to establish a stronger sequence of higher highs.

The daily Ichimoku chart presents another obstacle. Bitcoin is trading near the lower edge of the cloud around $64,490 and below the conversion line near $64,849. A daily close above this area would improve the short-term outlook, but the asset still needs to move through the wider cloud before confirming a sustained trend reversal.

Chaikin Money Flow is positive at 0.03, showing that buying pressure has returned modestly. The reading remains close to zero, however, and does not yet point to strong accumulation.

Liquidation clusters leave BTC exposed in both directions

CoinGlass’ three-day liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidity band around $64,400–$64,700, where Bitcoin was trading at the time of the chart. This nearby concentration may contribute to volatile price swings before and immediately after the Fed announcement.

Further liquidity is visible near $65,000–$65,300, followed by a larger group of positions around $65,800–$66,200. A confirmed break above $65,200 could therefore pull Bitcoin toward these higher liquidation levels as bearish positions are forced to close.

The downside contains a similarly important concentration near $62,500. Losing $64,000 would increase the risk of another test of $63,000, followed by the $62,000–$62,500 support area.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also identified $65,000 as the decisive near-term level. He warned that failure to reclaim it could send Bitcoin back toward $62,000–$62,500.

Michael van de Poppe offered a more bullish assessment, describing the recovery as a “very solid bounce” and arguing that Bitcoin could continue higher if it maintains its recent strength.

ETF flows and US policy remain downside risks

US spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains an important weakness behind the current setup. More than $500 million reportedly left the products during a 4-day run of outflows, removing a source of spot demand that had supported the previous advance.

The FOMC outcome will directly affect US investors because higher rates increase the relative appeal of cash and short-term government debt. A surprise hike could also raise financing costs and reduce demand for leveraged cryptocurrency positions.

Washington’s stalled crypto legislation adds another source of uncertainty. Polymarket traders recently placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at roughly 34%, down from higher levels earlier in July. The bill has faced disagreements over ethics restrictions and stablecoin-related provisions.

Bitcoin can push through $65,000 if the Fed avoids a hawkish surprise and buyers secure a close above $65,200. Without renewed ETF inflows, however, the move would remain dependent on derivatives positioning and short covering, leaving $62,500 exposed if the breakout fails.