Bitcoin has struggled to hold an advance above $76,800 after U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated after its latest increase.
Summary
- Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, compared with the 207,000 market forecast.
- Bitcoin briefly gained 1.25% to $76,800 before retreating toward $76,051.
- The Fed raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday.
- Analysts identified resistance at $77,500, followed by a heavier zone near $80,500–$82,000.
US jobless claims strengthen the case for higher rates
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 in the week ending Sep. 12, down from 206,000 a week earlier.
Economists had expected 207,000 claims, making the reading stronger than forecast. The four-week moving average, which smooths out some of the changes in the weekly figures, declined to 203,250 from 206,000.
Initial claims track new applications for unemployment benefits and provide an early view of layoffs across the United States. Although the Labor Department notes that weekly figures can be volatile, a decline generally indicates that employers are retaining workers.
For Federal Reserve officials, the latest reading adds to evidence that the U.S. labor market has remained firm despite elevated borrowing costs. Policymakers have less pressure to lower rates when job losses are limited, particularly while inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% goal.
The report arrived one day after the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. All 12 voting members backed the decision, which delivered the first U.S. rate increase since 2023.
In its statement, the Fed said economic activity was expanding at a “solid pace,” while domestic spending remained resilient and capital investment stayed robust. Officials also said job gains had kept pace with growth in the workforce and that the unemployment rate had changed little.
Inflation, however, remained elevated, according to the central bank. Officials said the rate increase would support a timelier return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Another Fed hike could pressure Bitcoin
The Fed’s updated projections placed the median federal funds rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026, indicating that policymakers expect another quarter-point increase before the year closes.
Lower unemployment claims could support that path because the data gives officials fewer reasons to worry that tighter policy is causing a rapid decline in employment. Higher rates also increase the yield available on U.S. government debt, which can reduce demand for assets that do not produce interest.
For American crypto investors, another increase would raise the cost of leverage while keeping Treasury yields competitive with Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive holdings. A firm U.S. dollar, which can accompany tighter monetary policy, may also create pressure for dollar-priced assets.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast to include another 25-basis-point increase this year, according to the original report. The bank changed its call after Fed officials delivered mixed messages about whether more tightening would be required to return inflation to target.
Before the decision, crypto.news examined the event risk surrounding the Fed meeting and reported that market-implied odds of a quarter-point hike had climbed from 69.4% to 86.5%. The report linked the repricing in part to an increase in oil prices, which had added to inflation concerns.
Bitcoin price gives back its post-data gain
Following the jobless claims release, Bitcoin initially rose about 1.25% to $76,800 before surrendering the advance. BTC later traded near $76,051, down roughly 1% from its level an hour earlier, according to the supplied market data.
The reversal followed a volatile week in which Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000 before falling below $75,000. In previous market coverage, BTC traded near $76,200 after reaching $79,800 on Sep. 11 and dropping to $74,944 on Sep. 15.
Technical readings in that report showed Bitcoin below its 20-day simple moving average at $78,104. The daily Chaikin Money Flow reading stood at minus 0.11, while the four-hour relative strength index remained below the neutral 50 level, pointing to weak momentum and net capital outflows during the decline.
The same analysis placed a major downside liquidation cluster near $74,600 and an upside liquidity area around $77,700. Bitcoin’s reaction to the jobless claims kept the price between those two zones, leaving neither buyers nor sellers with a confirmed break.
U.S. political developments have also weighed on the asset. The Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act earlier in the week after the motion received 50 votes in favor and 49 against, short of the 60 required. The proposal would have established how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide oversight of digital assets.
Bitcoin needs to clear $77,500 for stronger momentum
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $77,500 as the first important resistance area after Bitcoin bounced from approximately $75,584. His chart placed another resistance range between $80,500 and $81,200.
“Bitcoin facing resistance here. If you’d want to see some momentum, you’d need to break through this resistance and then we’re of towards the highs,” Van de Poppe wrote on X.
A move through $77,500 would place Bitcoin closer to its 20-day moving average at $78,104 before the asset could test the heavier supply zone above $80,500. Failure to recover the first resistance level would keep attention on the recent support area around $75,584 and the liquidation concentration near $74,600.
Analyst Ted Pillows separately said Bitcoin was “just one god candle away from hitting a higher high.” His chart placed the relevant higher-high area close to $82,000 and showed Ethereum and Solana approaching similar technical levels on their respective charts.
Bitcoin would need to clear the resistance identified by both analysts before confirming that structure. Van de Poppe’s chart placed the first barrier at $77,500, followed by $80,500–$81,200, while Pillows identified the higher-high threshold near $82,000.
